Wild second half could be on the way

Baseball Betting Lines

07/15/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the National League's first All-Star Game win over the American League in 14 years now in the books, we turn the page to the second half of the season, when teams really start to kick it into high gear.

History tells us that there is one team out there right now, laying in the weeds, that you don't think of as a playoff team but will come out of nowhere in September with a run to get them into the postseason.

Could it be Houston? Kansas City? The Cubs? Maybe Toronto? Who knows, but with 17 teams within five games of a division lead, everything is still up for grabs with 2 1/2 months remaining in the regular season.

So with that said, let's take a look at a few storylines to keep an eye on in the second half, as well as choosing some award-winners for the first half:

CHASING HISTORY IN THE AL

I wasn't alive for Carl Yastrzemski's Triple Crown season in 1967, but I think I may have a good shot at catching one this year. That milestone could be in play come September for Detroit's Miguel Cabrera, who is currently tied for the AL lead in average (.346), leads in RBI (77) and is two home runs off the pace of Toronto's Jose Bautista league-leading 24. Cabrera isn't the only one chasing the Triple Crown either. Texas' Josh Hamilton is tied with Cabrera in both average and home runs, but is 13 RBI behind the pace. Hamilton gets his RBI in bunches, so don't be surprised to see both of them battling for it in September.

PHILLIES ON THE MARCH?

I still think the Philadelphia Phillies are the best team in the National League. The All-Star break could not have come at a worse time for the two- time defending National League champions, as they went in having won four straight. However, it may not have come a better time either, as the Phils have had to deal with more injuries than any other team in the NL. I still like their chances, though. I think they will get another pitcher at the deadline and will probably add a bat to replace Chase Utley at second base. Nothing special, but something better than Wilson Valdez. Think Ty Wigginton or someone of that ilk. Keep in mind, nine of their final 12 games come against the two teams ahead of them in the division, with six of those contests against the front-running Atlanta Braves.

AL EAST DOGFIGHT

It is a shame that one member of the trio including the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays is going to miss out on the postseason this year. They are the three best teams in the American League and very well could be the three top teams in baseball. The Yankees carried a two-game lead over Tampa into the break, but Boston is right there at five games back, despite an unbelievable amount of injuries. I think the Yankees are going to be extremely motivated in the second half and as last week's near-deal for Cliff Lee showed, they are always looking to make themselves better. Boston at the moment is without Dustin Pedroia, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury, among others, not to mention the nagging injuries to Kevin Youkilis, J.D. Drew and Adrian Beltre. The Yankees have done most of their damage with little or no contribution from Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Both, though, started to show signs of life before the break. Boston is going to be even better once it starts to get healthy, which could be bad news for the Rays come October.

CAN SURPRISE TEAMS HANG ON?

A lot of people pegged the Cincinnati Reds as a surprise team heading into the year, but not me. I was way off on them. They are as good as anyone in the National League, their lost re-break weekend in Philadelphia not withstanding. And they could get better with the imminent return of Edinson Volquez. Nobody, though, thought the San Diego Padres were going to do anything but hold a fire sale sometime in July. Yet, both team find themselves atop their respective divisions at the break. I am not sure if either will be there at the end, but it will certainly be nice to have some new blood involved come September.

If you thought Texas was going to fade in the second half, think again, as the acquisition of Cliff Lee not only makes the Rangers the clear-cut favorites in the AL West, but a team that could even make some noise come October.

FIRST HALF AWARDS

AL MVP - MIGUEL CABRERA, DETROIT TIGERS

With all due respect to Hamilton, Cabrera has been the most important player in the American League so far. Hamilton has Vladimir Guerrero to help pick up the slack ... who does Cabrera have? Brennan Boesch has been good, but he is a rookie. Cabrera has been terrific, especially when you think of where he came from at the end of last season. Cabrera was my pick before the season to win the AL MVP and I am sticking with him midway through. HONORABLE MENTION: Hamilton, Texas

AL CY YOUNG - DAVID PRICE, TAMPA BAY RAYS

You knew Price was going to be in contention for an American League Cy Young Award one day. I am not sure anyone thought it would be this soon, though. Price, the AL's starting pitcher for Tuesday's All-Star Game, has been tremendous for the Rays, going 12-4 with a league-low 2.42 ERA and 100 strikeouts. He is still only 24 and could run out of steam down the stretch. How he finishes the year may determine whether or not the Rays are still playing in October. HONORABLE MENTION: CC Sabathia, NY Yankees

AL ROOKIE - BRENNAN BOESCH, DETROIT TIGERS

Most people pegged a Detroit Tigers outfielder as the Rookie of the Year in all the preseason picks. However, not one of them had Boesch as their guy. Austin Jackson was the rookie that received all the fanfare at the start of the season, but it has been Boesch who has had the biggest impact for Jim Leyland's crew. Boesch's numbers - .342 with 15 home runs and 49 RBI - are even more impressive when you factor in that he wasn't recalled from the minors until late April. He also has 34 extra base hits on the year. HONORABLE MENTION: Neftali Feliz, Texas

AL MANAGER - TERRY FRANCONA, BOSTON RED SOX

I know it is hard to give the manager of the year to someone who manages the Red Sox or the Yankees, considering their payrolls, but take a look at what Francona has done this year. All those injuries, and he still has his team right in the thick of the playoff race. HONORABLE MENTION: Ron Washington, Texas

NL MVP - DAVID WRIGHT, NEW YORK METS

You could go a lot of different ways here. Cincinnati's Joey Votto has been tremendous and St. Louis' Albert Pujols is always a good choice. Wright, though, was left for dead last season. A lot of people wrote him off after last season's power drought. He still strikes out too much, but he has hit everything in sight from about May on for the surprising Mets. Now that Carlos Beltran is back hitting behind him, I expect Wright to be even better in the second half. HONORABLE MENTION: Votto, Cincinnati

NL CY YOUNG - JOSH JOHNSON, FLORIDA MARLINS

With all things being equal, Johnson probably should have been starting that game on Tuesday instead of Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez. I think wins for a pitcher are overrated, but 15 wins at the break is pretty impressive, especially given how good Jimenez has looked at times. Johnson, though, was in my opinion the National League's best pitcher from start-to-break in the first half. Jimenez has had a few hiccups in there, but not Johnson, who went into the break sporting a major league-low 1.70 ERA. HONORABLE MENTION: Jimenez, Colorado

NL ROOKIE - JAIME GARCIA, ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

You would have been hard-pressed to find any name other than that of Jason Heyward on the preseason lists for NL Rookie of the Year. While Heyward has no doubt lived up to his advanced billing, Garcia has been the class of the first- year players in the Senior Circuit. He has been so good (a 2.17 ERA that ranks among league leaders), with so much poise, you have to remind yourself that he is a rookie. With Brad Penny injured for most of the first half, Garcia has been the perfect complement to the dynamic tandem of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright atop the Cardinals rotation. HONORABLE MENTION: Heyward, Atlanta

NL MANAGER - BUD BLACK, SAN DIEGO PADRES

The only news I thought the Padres would make this season was the trade of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to a contender. Well, Gonzalez is not going anywhere, as the Padres entered the break two games in front of the both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies in the NL West. One of the best pitching coaches in baseball up until the time he took managerial job in San Diego, Black has now worked his magic with the Padres, who have pitched to a major league best 3.25 ERA. HONORABLE MENTION: Dusty Baker, Cincinnati

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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