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09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Felix Hernandez will attempt to atone for a recent loss to the Cleveland Indians and help the Seattle Mariners earn a split of a four- game series with that above-mentioned opponent when the ace pitcher toes the rubber this afternoon at Safeco Field.
Hernandez's only setback over his past five starts took place against the Indians in Cleveland on August 15. The All-Star right-hander had a shutout after six innings of that contest, but was tagged for six runs -- all of which were unearned due to an error by teammate Chone Figgins -- in the seventh and served up a game-breaking grand slam to the Tribe's Travis Hafner.
The 24-year-old has bounced back quite well from that performance, however. Hernandez yielded just two runs -- one earned -- over a combined 15 1/3 innings in back-to-back road victories over the New York Yankees and Boston in his next two starts, then delivered seven scoreless frames in a tough-luck no- decision against the Angels on Tuesday.
Over his last five assignments, Hernandez has let up a mere one earned run and struck out 47 batters over 37 innings while posting a 3-1 record. His 2.38 ERA and 200 strikeouts for the season are both the second-best marks in the American League.
The native Venezuelan, who sports a 2.29 ERA at Safeco Field this year, is 3-3 with a 3.22 ERA in five career starts against the Indians.
Cleveland has won two of the first three tests of this September set between last-place teams and came through with a 4-2 decision on Saturday behind 6 2/3 strong innings from starting pitcher Mitch Talbot (9-11). The rookie right- hander yielded just one unearned run and struck out six Mariners to end a nine-start winless streak in which he went 0-5.
"It was nice to see Talbot come back and have a good outing," Indians manager Manny Acta said. "He's been struggling a little bit since he came back from the DL. [Saturday] he was very good, threw a lot of first pitch strikes, had that good changeup and a good cutter and gave us seven solid innings."
Cleveland gave Talbot an early cushion by scoring four unanswered runs off Seattle starter David Pauley over the game's first four innings, with Hafner, Asdrubral Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Brantley all coming through with RBI singles.
Pauley (2-7) did last six innings and surrendered the four runs on seven hits while striking out five.
"I think Pauley wasn't as sharp as he has been," said Mariners manager Daren Brown. "I thought he left some pitches in the middle of the plate, he had trouble getting his breaking balls over early and they just sat on the fastball and took the sinker away from him."
Ex-Indian Russell Branyan had a solo homer for Seattle, his second of the series, and finished 2-for-3 in Saturday's loss.
Acta will hand the ball to Jeanmar Gomez in this afternoon's finale, with the rookie filling in for originally-scheduled starter Justin Masterson due to the latter having to attend to a family matter.
Gomez has made seven starts for the Indians this season and gone 3-2 with a very respectable 3.08 ERA, though he's 0-2 with a 5.52 ERA over his last three times out. The young right-hander did pitch decent in an August 28 matchup against Kansas City, allowing two runs on six hits over 5 2/3 innings while not receiving a decision in his team's 4-3 win.
This will be the first-ever appearance against Seattle for Gomez, who's just 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA in three starts on the road this year.
Though these teams have split six meetings this season, Cleveland has taken seven of its last eight games against the Mariners held in Safeco Field.
<< Happ goes for Astros in the desert
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Newly-minted Astro lefty J.A. Happ can make it five wins in
seven decisions with Houston today when they visit Chase Field to close out a
three-game weekend series with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Arizona won Friday's opener
<< Rockies try to pin 10th straight loss on reeling Padres
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres try to avoid their worst losing streak
in more than 16 years this afternoon when they play the finale of their three-
game series with the Colorado Rockies at Petco Park.
San Diego has been baseball's
<< Giants, Dodgers play rubber match at Chavez Ravine
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hiroki Kuroda nearly threw a no-hitter in his last trip to
the hill. Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers will settle for a win, as they
play the rubber match of their three-game set against the San Francisco Giants
at Dodgers St
<< Wilson, Rangers hope to avoid sweep in Minnesota
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hoping to avoid a series sweep at the hands of the
Minnesota Twins, the Texas Rangers may have the right pitcher on the mound
today to accomplish that goal.
C.J. Wilson will attempt to register his eighth consecutive winni
Davies wins for third time in Austria >>
Wiener Neustadt, Austria (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Laura Davies carded a two-under 70
Sunday to earn a one-stroke win at the Uniqa Ladies Golf Open.
Davies, who won this title for the third time, finished at 11-under-par 205.
The victory was Davi
Wattel becomes second amateur winner in 2010 on Challenge Tour >>
La Wantzenau, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Amateur Romain Wattel closed with
a five-under 67 Sunday to collect a three-stroke win at the Allianz
Europen Strasbourg-Golf de la Wantzenau.
Wattel finished the event at 17-under-par 271.
In the FCS Huddle: Major upsets don't make the other games minor >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are no ifs, ands or buts about it,
when a Football Championship Subdivision team upsets a major-conference team,
it deserves to be in the spotlight as much as any other team across the
nation.
Think
A-Rod in Yankees' lineup >>
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez is in
Sunday's lineup, batting fourth against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Rodriguez, who last played on August 20 against Seattle, suffered a strained
left calf that for
Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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