Astros to unveil Happ in opener with Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nobody expects new Houston Astros starter J.A. Happ to replace the traded Roy Oswalt, yet that is what the young left-hander must do tonight.

One day after getting dealt to the Astros in a deal that sent Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies, Happ will make a quick Houston debut this evening in the opener of a three-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers at Minute Maid Park.

With Houston 17 games under .500 and 14 games out of first place in the National League Central, the Astros decided to look to the future on Thursday, sending the veteran Oswalt to the Phillies along with cash for Happ and a pair of minor league players. One of those minor leaguers, outfielder Anthony Gose, was then flipped to Toronto for highly-regarded first base prospect Brett Wallace.

"Obviously, I was a little shocked and a little surprised [Thursday], but I'm definitely looking on the positive," Happ told Houston's website. "I hope to be a part of their future and help turn things around there. It's nice to go to a team that wants you. I want to go down there and pitch well and see what happens."

Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 earned run average in 35 games (23 starts) last year, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He made two April starts before getting sidelined for over three months due to a forearm injury, returning on Sunday to face Colorado. The 27-year-old got a no-decision in his return after allowing three runs on four hits and four walks over five innings, giving him a 1-0 mark and 1.76 ERA on the season.

The left-hander has made just one career start at Minute Maid Park, throwing five scoreless innings of six-hit ball in a victory over the Astros, and is 1-0 with a 6.14 ERA lifetime versus the Brewers.

Oswalt, who waived a no-trade clause to make the deal happen, was scheduled to start tonight for the Astros, but he will instead be pitching with the Phillies. The former All-Star went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA in 303 games (291 starts) over nine-plus seasons with Houston, leaving one win shy of matching Joe Niekro for the most in club history.

After an off day on Thursday, the Astros resume their nine-game homestand. They have split the first six matchups of the swing, taking two of three over the Cubs earlier in the week.

Houston has won all four of its series this year with Chicago after taking Wednesday's rubber match, 8-1. Carlos Lee had a pair of two-run homers and Bud Norris gave up just one unearned run over six innings.

Third baseman Chris Johnson went 1-for-4 at the plate to extend his hitting streak to 12 games, the longest by a Houston rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000.

Happ failed to catch a break tonight in regards to facing All-Star Milwaukee outfielder Corey Hart, who is expected to play for the first time in six games after missing time due to a sore right thumb and wrist. The slugger is batting .292 with 22 homers and 70 RBI this year.

Minus Hart on Wednesday, the Brewers dropped a rubber match with Cincinnati, 10-2. Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy both drove in a run for Milwaukee, while starter Chris Narveson allowed three runs over five-plus innings to take the loss.

"Narveson pitched five good innings and we had a rested bullpen, so that's why I played it that way," said Brewers manager Ken Macha. "If there's one consistency he's had, it's that he's had one bad inning in a lot of his starts. So that was the thought process, to not let it snowball."

Milwaukee has lost two in a row since a five-game win streak and hope that Manny Parra can earn his first victory since July 3 tonight.

The 27-year-old is 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA in three starts since that win. He was drilled for 10 runs over 5 1/3 innings of a loss to the Braves on July 18, but rebounded in a no-decision against the Nationals on Saturday. Parra allowed just two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings.

Parra is 3-7 with a 5.33 ERA this year and 4-3 with a 5.18 ERA in eight lifetime starts versus Houston. The left-hander got a no-decision against the club on June 28 after yielding four runs on seven hits and four walks over five frames of work.

The Brewers and Astros have split six games so far this year, with each meeting taking place in Milwaukee.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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